Research on Glacier Changes and Their Influencing Factors in the Yigong Zangbo River Basin of the Tibetan Plateau, China, Based on ICESat-2 Data

Abstract

The intense changes in glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) have essential impacts on regional water resource management. In order to study the seasonal fluctuations of glaciers in this region and their relationship with climate change, we focus on the Yigong Zangbo River Basin in the SETP, extract the annual and seasonal variations of glaciers in the basin during 2018–2023, and analyze their spatio-temporal characteristics through the seasonal-trend decomposition using the LOESS (STL) method. Finally, combining the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) model, we assess the comprehensive impact of meteorological factors such as temperature and snowfall on glacier changes. The results indicate that glaciers in the Yigong Zangbo River Basin experienced remarkable mass loss during 2018–2023, with an average annual melting rate of −0.83 ± 0.12 m w.e.∙yr−1. The glacier mass exhibits marked seasonal fluctuations, with increases in January–March (JFM) and April–June (AMJ) and noticeable melting in July–September (JAS) and October–December (OND). The changes over these four periods are 2.12 ± 0.04 m w.e., 0.93 ± 0.15 m w.e., −1.58 ± 0.19 m w.e., and −1.32 ± 0.17 m w.e., respectively. Temperature has been identified as the primary meteorological driver of glacier changes in the study area, surpassing the impact of snowfall. This study uses advanced altimetry data and meteorological data to monitor and analyze glacier changes, which provides valuable data for cryosphere research and also validates a set of replicable research methods, which provides support for future research in related fields.