Wilting Wildflowers and Bummed-Out Bees: Climate Change Threatens U.S. State Symbols

Abstract

Species designated as state symbols in the United States carry cultural importance and embody historical heritage. However, they are threatened by climate change and even face the risk of local or global extinction. The responses of these species to climate change have received little attention. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change on state flowers and insects in the United States by employing correlative species distribution models (SDMs). We select a variety of commonly used SDM algorithms to construct an ensemble forecasting framework aimed at predicting the potential habitats for each species under both historical and future climate scenarios, and how these changes might influence the distributions of state flower and insect species. Our results show that more than half of the state flowers (～66%) and insects (51%) are predicted to experience a substantial decrease in regions with favorable climates within the states they represent. Conversely, only a small number (Flowers: ～2%; Insects: ～10%) are projected to see an increase in habitat suitability in the future. Certain states may no longer possess suitable habitats for their state-designated species. Our findings indicate that cultural heritage might be at risk due to reduced habitat suitability and local extinctions driven by climate change. These findings can provide guidance regarding the protection or replacement of state species to preserve cultural heritage.