Research on simulation and validation methods of aerosol radiative forcing on the Tibetan Plateau based on satellite and ground-based remote sensing observations over the past 20 years

Abstract

Atmospheric radiative changes induced by aerosol radiative forcing are the most uncertain factors in climate change, affecting a comprehensive understanding of aerosol's role in the climate system and ecosystem, with current research mainly focused on densely populated and heavily polluted regions. This study utilizes satellite and ground-based remote sensing data to establish a multi-source data processing and analysis workflow suitable for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, and based on atmospheric radiative transfer models, constructs methods for simulating and validating regional aerosol radiative forcing, optimizing the long-term observational, simulation, and variation studies of aerosol radiative forcing at regional scales. The results indicate: (1) Key input parameters for simulating aerosol radiative forcing regions were determined through sensitivity tests of radiative transfer model parameters to be AOD, surface albedo, atmospheric column water vapor content, and total atmospheric ozone. A method for simulating aerosol direct radiative forcing regions was constructed. Comparison and validation against aerosol radiative forcing site simulations based on ground-based remote sensing observations at the Yangbajing station in Tibet showed R² values above 0.8 and NRMSE values between 0.25 and 0.39, indicating high accuracy of the method, suitable for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. (2) Utilizing satellite remote sensing data, aerosol direct radiative forcing simulations for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region over the past 20 years were conducted based on the constructed method. Results showed: ① The annual mean aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere was −3.03 W/m², gradually increasing from west to east; monthly means were negative, decreasing by an average of 0.0025 W/m² per year, with decreases mainly in February to May. ② The annual mean surface aerosol radiative forcing was −13.56 W/m², gradually increasing from west to east; monthly means were negative, decreasing by an average of 0.015 W/m² per year, with decreases mainly in February, June to July, and October to December. ③ The annual mean atmospheric aerosol radiative forcing was 10.6 W/m², gradually increasing from southwest to northeast; monthly means were positive, increasing by 0.007 W/m² per year, with increases mainly in October to December. Overall, the annual and monthly mean aerosol direct radiative forcing values at the top of the atmosphere and surface were negative, indicating a cooling effect, while those in the atmosphere were positive, indicating a heating effect; the strongest aerosol radiative forcing occurred in summer at the top of the atmosphere, and in spring for both surface and atmosphere; April showed the fastest variation.