Dynamic estimates of survival in patients with follicular thyroid cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

IF 3.7 3区医学 Q2 Medicine Endocrine Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI:10.1007/s12020-024-04010-z

Xiaoyu Ji, Ruonan Yu, Wei Sun, Ping Zhang, Wenwu Dong, Hao Zhang

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Abstract

Background: Few studies have been conducted on the dynamic survival rates of follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). This study aimed to ascertain how the survival probability of patients with FTC changes over time.

Methods: In this retrospective analysis, 10,617 patients diagnosed with FTC between 2000 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included. Actuarial disease-specific survival (DSS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the log-rank test was used for comparisons. The annual hazard of mortality was determined using the hazard function, and the conditional survival (CS) was calculated using the life table method.

Results: A total of 459 (4.3%) patients died of FTC, and the 5-year and 10-year DSS rates were 96.6 ± 0.2% and 94.6 ± 0.3%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in the DSS rate between patients with different SEER combined summary stages (P < 0.001). The annual hazard curve for cancer mortality in the entire study cohort displayed a steep downward trend with a slight peak at 2.5 years after diagnosis, followed by a gradual decline. Patients with distant metastases exhibited a higher mortality hazard curve and more notable declining trend. CS demonstrated an upward trend across the entire study population, with the most pronounced trend in patients with distant metastases.

Conclusion: Prognosis improved over time in a stage-dependent manner in patients with FTC after diagnosis. The most significant improvement was observed in the patients with distant metastases. Notably, dynamic survival estimations, such as death hazard and conditional survival analysis, provide more precise survival projections than traditional survival analysis for FTC survivors.

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甲状腺滤泡癌患者生存期的动态估计：一项回顾性队列研究。

背景：有关滤泡性甲状腺癌（FTC）动态生存率的研究很少。本研究旨在确定FTC患者的生存概率随时间如何变化：在这项回顾性分析中，纳入了来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的 10,617 名在 2000 年至 2019 年期间确诊为 FTC 的患者。采用卡普兰-梅耶法估算精算疾病特异性生存率（DSS），并使用对数秩检验进行比较。使用危险函数确定年死亡危险度，使用生命表法计算条件生存率（CS）：共有 459 名（4.3%）患者死于 FTC，5 年和 10 年的 DSS 率分别为 96.6 ± 0.2% 和 94.6 ± 0.3%。不同 SEER 合并摘要分期的患者之间的 DSS 率差异有统计学意义（P 结论：FTC 患者的预后随着时间的推移有所改善：FTC患者确诊后的预后随时间的推移而改善，改善程度与分期有关。远处转移患者的预后改善最为明显。值得注意的是，对 FTC 幸存者而言，死亡危险和条件生存分析等动态生存估计比传统生存分析能提供更精确的生存预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Endocrine 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Well-established as a major journal in today’s rapidly advancing experimental and clinical research areas, Endocrine publishes original articles devoted to basic (including molecular, cellular and physiological studies), translational and clinical research in all the different fields of endocrinology and metabolism. Articles will be accepted based on peer-reviews, priority, and editorial decision. Invited reviews, mini-reviews and viewpoints on relevant pathophysiological and clinical topics, as well as Editorials on articles appearing in the Journal, are published. Unsolicited Editorials will be evaluated by the editorial team. Outcomes of scientific meetings, as well as guidelines and position statements, may be submitted. The Journal also considers special feature articles in the field of endocrine genetics and epigenetics, as well as articles devoted to novel methods and techniques in endocrinology. Endocrine covers controversial, clinical endocrine issues. Meta-analyses on endocrine and metabolic topics are also accepted. Descriptions of single clinical cases and/or small patients studies are not published unless of exceptional interest. However, reports of novel imaging studies and endocrine side effects in single patients may be considered. Research letters and letters to the editor related or unrelated to recently published articles can be submitted. Endocrine covers leading topics in endocrinology such as neuroendocrinology, pituitary and hypothalamic peptides, thyroid physiological and clinical aspects, bone and mineral metabolism and osteoporosis, obesity, lipid and energy metabolism and food intake control, insulin, Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, hormones of male and female reproduction, adrenal diseases pediatric and geriatric endocrinology, endocrine hypertension and endocrine oncology.