Artificial intelligence for assessing the planets' positions as a precursor to earthquake events

IF 2.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Geodynamics Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI:10.1016/j.jog.2024.102057
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Abstract

Questions about interconnection possibilities between planets’ positions and seismic events on the earth have emerged recently in TV channels, social media, etc. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest Regression (RFR) are used to predict the number of earthquakes that can occur on Earth, depending on the Earth’s position relative to other planets and solar positions. Our new integration dataset contains 9809 observations and nine features firstly from the global earthquake archive, which is an authoritative layer by Esri, and secondly from the accurate data web portal “theskylive.com.”.
The results obtained from RFR and ANN prove the partial influence of planets positions on sesimic activity on the earth. In other words, quantitatively through the ANN that gets an accuracy of 68.27 %, MAE of 5.36, MSE of 52.78, RMSE of 7.26, R-Squared of 0.65, and also through the RFR that gets an accuracy of 65.06 %, MAE of 5.60, MSE of 58.21, RMSE of 7.63, R-Squared of 0.67, prove the partial influence on one hand. Qualitatively through the curve of the training phase of the ANN, which is a decreasing and convex function, reinforces the aforementioned proof on the other hand. For these reasons, it can be deduced that there is a possible connection between tectonic stress triggers and the positions of the planets in the solar system. Our dataset was uploaded to the github(https://github.com/mouddentarik/Earthquake01.) as well as the code will be publicly available at the github(https://github.com/mouddentarik/PythonCode_Earthquakes-.) to share our results.
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人工智能评估行星位置作为地震事件的前兆
最近,电视频道、社交媒体等出现了关于行星位置与地球地震事件之间相互联系的问题。在这项研究中,我们使用人工神经网络(ANN)和随机森林回归(RFR)来预测地球上可能发生的地震次数,这取决于地球相对于其他行星和太阳的位置。我们的新整合数据集包含 9809 个观测数据和九个特征,首先来自 Esri 的权威图层全球地震档案,其次来自精确数据门户网站 "theskylive.com"。RFR 和 ANN 得出的结果证明了行星位置对地球地震活动的部分影响。换句话说,从定量角度看,ANN 的精确度为 68.27%,MAE 为 5.36,MSE 为 52.78,RMSE 为 7.26,R 平方为 0.65;从定性角度看,RFR 的精确度为 65.06%,MAE 为 5.60,MSE 为 58.21,RMSE 为 7.63,R 平方为 0.67。而 ANN 训练阶段的曲线是一个递减的凸函数,这从定性上加强了上述证明。因此,可以推断出构造应力触发器与太阳系中的行星位置之间可能存在联系。我们的数据集已上传到 github(https://github.com/mouddentarik/Earthquake01.),代码也将在 github(https://github.com/mouddentarik/PythonCode_Earthquakes-.) 公开,以分享我们的成果。
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来源期刊
Journal of Geodynamics
Journal of Geodynamics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Geodynamics is an international and interdisciplinary forum for the publication of results and discussions of solid earth research in geodetic, geophysical, geological and geochemical geodynamics, with special emphasis on the large scale processes involved.
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