Trophic cascades and climate change

Abstract

The widespread loss of top predators and anthropogenic climate change are two major environmental crises with pervasive impacts on ecosystems. Climate-related factors such as temperature changes, altered precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and shifting wildfire regimes can influence trophic cascades by affecting the composition, physiology, and behavior of species within an ecosystem. These changes can disrupt food web dynamics, leading to shifts in predator-prey relationships, altered species interactions, and potentially unexpected ecological outcomes. With these potential disruptions in mind, we analyzed climate risks to 360 extant large carnivore species. Our results show that 47 of these species are threatened by climate change. We then considered how trophic cascades and climate change are linked, describing mechanisms through which harnessing trophic cascades can facilitate efforts to improve climate resilience and, conversely, how climate change can trigger or affect the strength and direction of trophic cascades. As major drivers of global change, more efforts are needed by people and governments to address climate change and trophic downgrading together, with a focus on co-benefits, including improved ecosystem function and carbon sequestration.