Seismic-Resilient Planning for Integrated Energy System: A Risk-Economic Coordination Perspective

Abstract

Earthquakes along plate boundary zones can cause extensive damage to energy infrastructure and lead to significant economic losses. In view of the high-impact low-probability (HILP) feature of seismic events, this paper proposes a seismic-resilient planning approach for protecting integrated energy system (IES) against earthquakes from a risk-economic coordination perspective. Specially, a novel hierarchical scenario aggregation method is developed to characterize probabilistic seismic events’ distinct impact on IES at different magnitudes. To balance the cost and resilience enhancement, a two-stage risk-based IES planning model with pre-event reinforcement and post-event power-gas-heat coordinated dispatch is established. The conditional value-at-risk measure is introduced to mitigate tail load loss risks under extreme HILP seismic scenarios. Furthermore, to accelerate the modeling solution with mixed-integer recourse and CVaR structure under massive scenarios, a tailored Benders decomposition (TBD) method is developed. Case studies demonstrate the merits of the proposed method in deriving resilient IES planning decisions against uncertain seismic attacks in an economic-risk balancing manner. The effectiveness of the hierarchical scenario aggregation method and TBD algorithm is also verified.