Simulating the emergence of institutions that reverse freshwater salinization: An agent-based modeling approach

IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of Hydrology X Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI:10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100188
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Abstract

Salt concentration in global freshwater supplies has increased steadily, leading to the Freshwater Salinization Syndrome (FSS). To curb the FSS, stakeholders can self-organize to develop institutions, or a set of rules that limit salt emissions. This research develops an agent-based modeling framework to explore how institutions reverse the FSS. Property owners are represented as agents that apply rules of behavior to apply salt to deice pavement in response to winter weather, vote on institutions, and comply with or defect from institutions. Salt enters the soil-groundwater system through infiltration, which is modeled using a transit time distribution approach. Results demonstrate that stable institutions lead to positive economic outcomes for stakeholders, based on their ability to apply salt during winter events and access high-quality drinking water. Simulations are analyzed to explore institutions, or limits to the application of salt, that emerge based on the interactions of stakeholders as they agree on salt application limits, the intensity of monitoring for defectors, and sanctions. Institutions that emerge effectively limit the concentration of salt in drinking water. The emergence of stable institutions low rates of innovation among stakeholders, and the concentration of salt in groundwater exceeds standards due to high rates of defection among stakeholders. This research demonstrates how self-organized institutions can lead to sustainable application strategies that reverse the FSS.
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模拟逆转淡水盐碱化的机构的出现:基于代理的建模方法
全球淡水供应中的盐浓度持续上升,导致了淡水盐碱化综合症(FSS)。为了遏制淡水盐碱化综合症,利益相关者可以自发组织起来,制定限制盐排放的制度或一系列规则。本研究开发了一个基于代理的建模框架,以探索制度如何扭转 FSS。业主被视为代理人,他们应用行为规则,根据冬季天气情况在路面上撒盐除冰,对制度进行投票,并遵守或不遵守制度。盐分通过渗透进入土壤-地下水系统,该过程采用过境时间分布法建模。结果表明,稳定的制度会给利益相关者带来积极的经济效益,因为他们有能力在冬季施盐并获得高质量的饮用水。通过对模拟进行分析,探讨了在利益相关者就施盐限制、对叛逃者的监控力度和制裁措施达成一致时,根据利益相关者的互动而产生的制度或施盐限制。新出现的制度有效地限制了饮用水中的盐浓度。稳定机构的出现降低了利益相关者之间的创新率,由于利益相关者之间的高叛变率,地下水中的盐浓度超过了标准。这项研究展示了自组织机构如何能够带来可持续的应用策略,从而扭转快速供水系统。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology X
Journal of Hydrology X Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
2.50%
发文量
20
审稿时长
25 weeks
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