[Low-carbon Development Path of Ordos Based on LEAP Model].

Abstract

To determine the low-carbon development path of Ordos, three scenarios （baseline scenario, low carbon scenario, and enhanced low carbon scenario） were constructed based on the LEAP model to forecast the energy demand and carbon emission in Ordos from 2020 to 2050 and to analyze the contribution of various policy initiatives to reduce carbon emission. The results showed that under the enhanced low carbon scenario, the energy demand in Ordos peaked at 52 million tons of standard coal equivalent in 2025 and decreased to 40 million tons of standard coal equivalent in 2050, and carbon emissions peaked at 163 million tons in 2025 and decreased to 16 million tons in 2050, which was 88% lower than that in 2020. Regarding emission reduction contribution, comparing the baseline scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the increase in renewable energy power generation installation, the reduction in energy consumption of terminal energy use, and the increase in terminal electrification rate contributed to the emission reductions of 43%, 25%, and 24%, respectively. The Ordos should vigorously develop renewable energy and make full use of the rich endowment of wind and light resources； at the same time, it should promote economic transformation and gradually increase the proportion of high-value-added and low-energy-consuming industries in the industrial structure. For the power sector, the power generation structure should be adjusted. Traditional thermal power generation should be replaced by zero-carbon and low-carbon power generation technologies. For the industrial and transportation sectors, the terminal electrification rate should be increased, and the energy intensity should be reduced.