[Predicting Ozone Concentration in Hangzhou with the Fusion Class Stacking Algorithm].

Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the single machine learning model has low prediction accuracy of daily average ozone concentration, an ozone concentration prediction method based on the fusion class Stacking algorithm （FSOP） was proposed, which combined the statistical method ordinary least squares （OLS） with machine learning algorithms and improved the prediction accuracy of the ozone concentration prediction model by integrating the advantages of different learners. Based on the principle of the Stacking algorithm, the observation data of the daily maximum 8h ozone average concentration and meteorological reanalysis data in Hangzhou from January 2017 to December 2022 were used. Firstly, the specific ozone concentration prediction models based on the light gradient boosting machine （LightGBM） algorithm, long short-term memory model （LSTM）, and Informer model were established, respectively. Then, the prediction results of the above models were used as meta-features, and the OLS algorithm was used to obtain the prediction expression of ozone concentration to fit the observed ozone concentration. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model combined with the class Stacking algorithm was improved, and the fitting effect of ozone concentration was better. Among them, R², RMSE, and MAE were 0.84, 19.65 μg·m^-3, and 15.50 μg·m^-3, respectively, which improved the prediction accuracy by approximately 8% compared with that of the single machine learning model.