Developing a nomogram to predict recurrent intussusception after pneumatic reduction of primary intussusception in children.

Abstract

Backgroud: Intussusception is a common acute abdominal disease in children, often leading to acute ileus in infants and young children.

Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrent intussusception in children within 48 h after pneumatic reduction of primary intussusception.

Methods: Clinical data of children with acute intussusception admitted to multiple hospitals from March 2019 to March 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The children were divided into a successful reductioncontrol group (control group) and a recurrent intussusception group (RI group) according to the results of pneumatic reduction.

Results: A total of 2406 cases were included in this study, including 2198 control group and 208 RI group. In the total sample, 1684 cases were trained and 722 cases were verified. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to establish a predictive model based on age, abdominal pain time, white blood cells count, and hypersensitive C-reactive protein levels as independent predictors of intussusception recurrence. The nomogram successfully predicted recurrent intussusception after pneumatic reduction.

Conclusion: In this study, a nomogram was developed based on clinical risk factors to predict recurrent intussusception following pneumatic reduction in children. Age, abdominal pain time, white blood cell counts, and hypersensitive C-reactive protein levels were identified as predictors and incorporated into the nomogram. Internal validation demonstrated that this nomogram can offer a clear and convenient tool for identifying risk factors for recurrence of intussusception in children undergoing pneumatic reduction.