{"title":"Coronary artery bypass grafting in octogenarians: a nomogram for predicting all-cause mortality.","authors":"Saeed Davoodi, Mohammad Sadeq Najafi, Ahmad Vakili-Basir, Arash Jalali, Zahra Karimi, Elnaz Shahmohamadi, Mohadese Dashtkoohi, Aryan Ayati, Alireza Hadizadeh, Shahram Momtahan, Mahmoud Shirzad, Jamshid Bagheri","doi":"10.1186/s13019-024-03054-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The benefits and risks of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in octogenarians remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the predictors of increased risk of all-cause mortality in octogenarian patients after CABG.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We retrospectively analyzed the data of 1636 octogenarians who underwent isolated elective on-pump CABG between 2007 and 2016. The primary endpoint was mortality from any cause. The Kaplan-Meier curve was generated for mortality. A univariate Cox regression was performed for preprocedural and procedural variables. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) using the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to determine the strongest predictors. We designed a nomogram based on the selected variables to calculate the mortality risk after one, five, and ten years. The bootstrap resampling based on the C-index was performed to validate the final model. Calibration plots were created at different time points.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The mean age of the patients was 82.03 years (SD = 1.74), and 74% were male. In a median follow-up of 9.2 (95% CI 9.0,9.5) years, 626 (38.2%) patients died. After the selection of best predictors based on AIC, the multivariable Cox regression showed that ejection fraction < 40 (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.21-1.65, P < 0.001), two-vessel disease (HR: 0.59, 95% CI 0.40-0.89, P = 0.012), peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.05-2.21, P = 0.027), and valvular heart disease (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.24-1.69, P < 0.001) were the significant predictors of all-cause mortality.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Octogenarians who undergo CABG have a high mortality risk, influenced by several preprocedural and procedural risk factors. The proposed nomogram can be considered for optimizing the management of this vulnerable age group. Clinical registration number IR.TUMS.THC.REC.1400.081.</p>","PeriodicalId":15201,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11448455/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13019-024-03054-6","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: The benefits and risks of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in octogenarians remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the predictors of increased risk of all-cause mortality in octogenarian patients after CABG.
Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 1636 octogenarians who underwent isolated elective on-pump CABG between 2007 and 2016. The primary endpoint was mortality from any cause. The Kaplan-Meier curve was generated for mortality. A univariate Cox regression was performed for preprocedural and procedural variables. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) using the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to determine the strongest predictors. We designed a nomogram based on the selected variables to calculate the mortality risk after one, five, and ten years. The bootstrap resampling based on the C-index was performed to validate the final model. Calibration plots were created at different time points.
Results: The mean age of the patients was 82.03 years (SD = 1.74), and 74% were male. In a median follow-up of 9.2 (95% CI 9.0,9.5) years, 626 (38.2%) patients died. After the selection of best predictors based on AIC, the multivariable Cox regression showed that ejection fraction < 40 (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.21-1.65, P < 0.001), two-vessel disease (HR: 0.59, 95% CI 0.40-0.89, P = 0.012), peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.05-2.21, P = 0.027), and valvular heart disease (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.24-1.69, P < 0.001) were the significant predictors of all-cause mortality.
Conclusion: Octogenarians who undergo CABG have a high mortality risk, influenced by several preprocedural and procedural risk factors. The proposed nomogram can be considered for optimizing the management of this vulnerable age group. Clinical registration number IR.TUMS.THC.REC.1400.081.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery is an open access journal that encompasses all aspects of research in the field of Cardiology, and Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery. The journal publishes original scientific research documenting clinical and experimental advances in cardiac, vascular and thoracic surgery, and related fields.
Topics of interest include surgical techniques, survival rates, surgical complications and their outcomes; along with basic sciences, pediatric conditions, transplantations and clinical trials.
Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery is of interest to cardiothoracic and vascular surgeons, cardiothoracic anaesthesiologists, cardiologists, chest physicians, and allied health professionals.