Development and validation of a sepsis risk index supporting early identification of ICU-acquired sepsis: an observational study

Abstract

Background

Sepsis is a threat to global health, and domestically is the major cause of in-hospital mortality. Due to increases in inpatient morbidity and mortality resulting from sepsis, healthcare providers (HCPs) would accrue significant benefits from identifying the syndrome early and treating it promptly and effectively. Prompt and effective detection, diagnosis, and treatment of sepsis requires frequent monitoring and assessment of patient vital signs and other relevant data present in the electronic health record.

Methods

This study explored the development of machine learning-based models to generate a novel sepsis risk index (SRI) which is an intuitive 0–100 marker that reflects the risk of a patient acquiring sepsis or septic shock and assists in timely diagnosis. Machine learning models were developed and validated using openly accessible critical care databases. The model was developed using a single database (from one institution) and validated on a separate database consisting of patient data collected across multiple ICUs.

Results

The developed model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 and 0.84 for the diagnosis of sepsis and septic shock, respectively, with a sensitivity and specificity of 79.1% [75.1, 82.7] and 73.3% [72.8, 73.8] for a sepsis diagnosis and 83.8% [80.8, 86.5] and 73.3% [72.8, 73.8] for a septic shock diagnosis.

Conclusion

The SRI provides critical care HCPs with an intuitive quantitative measure related to the risk of a patient having or acquiring a life-threatening infection. Evaluation of the SRI over time may provide HCPs the ability to initiate protective interventions (e.g., targeted antibiotic therapy).