Predicting long-term mortality of patients with postoperative acute kidney injury following noncardiac general anesthesia surgery using machine learning.

Abstract

Background: This study addresses the gap in knowledge regarding the long-term mortality implications of postoperative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) utilizing advanced machine learning techniques to predict outcomes more accurately than traditional statistical models.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from seven institutions between March 2009 and December 2019. Machine learning models were developed to predict all-cause mortality of PO-AKI patients using 23 preoperative variables and one postoperative variable. Model performance was compared to a traditional statistical approach with Cox regression analysis. The concordance index was used as a predictive performance metric to compare prediction capabilities among different models.

Results: Among 199,403 patients, 2,105 developed PO-AKI. During a median follow-up of 144 months (interquartile range, 99.61-170.71 months), 472 in-hospital deaths occurred. Subjects with PO-AKI had a significantly lower survival rate than those without PO-AKI (p < 0.001). For predicting mortality, the XGBoost with an accelerated failure time model had the highest concordance index (0.7521), followed by random survival forest (0.7371), multivariable Cox regression model (0.7318), survival support vector machine (0.7304), and gradient boosting (0.7277).

Conclusion: XGBoost with an accelerated failure time model was developed in this study to predict long-term mortality associated with PO-AKI. Its performance was superior to conventional models. The application of machine learning techniques may offer a promising approach to predict mortality following PO-AKI more accurately, providing a basis for developing targeted interventions and clinical guidelines to improve patient outcomes.