Application of a validated prognostic plasma protein biomarker test for renal decline in type 2 diabetes to type 1 diabetes: the Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II.

Abstract

Background: There are scant data relating to prognostic biomarkers for chronic kidney disease (CKD) complicating type 1 diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the plasma protein biomarker-based PromarkerD test developed and validated for predicting renal decline in type 2 diabetes in the context of type 1 diabetes.

Methods: The baseline PromarkerD test score was determined in 91 community-based individuals (mean age 46.2 years, 56.5% males) with confirmed type 1 diabetes recruited to the longitudinal observational Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II. The performance of the PromarkerD test in predicting the risk of incident CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73m² in people without CKD at baseline) or an eGFR decline of ≥ 30% over the next four years was determined. The score can range from 0 to 100%, and is categorized as representing low (< 10%), moderate (10% to < 20%) or high (≥ 20%) risk.

Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99) for the composite renal endpoint, indicating strong predictive accuracy. The positive and negative predictive values at moderate (10% to < 20%) and high (≥ 20%) risk PromarkerD cut-offs were 46.7-50.0% and ≥ 92.0%, respectively.

Conclusions: These preliminary data suggest that PromarkerD is at least as good a prognostic test for renal decline in type 1 as type 2 diabetes.