Trends in the incidence and prevalence of cirrhosis in Manitoba, Canada: A population-based study (2010-2019)

Abstract

Introduction and Objectives

The burden of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis continues to increase in North America. We sought to estimate the incidence and prevalence of cirrhosis in Manitoba, Canada over time and assess changes in trends between 2010-2019.

Material and Methods

We performed a population-based study using Manitoba administrative health care data, and two validated case-finding algorithms. Annual incidence and prevalence rates were estimated using a generalized linear model with generalized estimating equations, adjusting for age and sex. Changes in estimates were tested using linear trend regression models.

Results

Two algorithms estimated the number of prevalent cirrhosis to be 16,140 and 29,943 respectively. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates increased over the study (from 149 to 264 cases per 100,000 population in 2010, to 177 to 388 cases per 100,000 population in 2019). Cirrhosis incidence increased annually by 2-6 %, with the largest increase (6-8 % 95 % CI 7-9 %, p <0.0001) in those aged 18-44 years. Irrespective of the algorithm used, females consistently exhibited higher cirrhosis incidence and prevalence compared to males over time (P <0.0001). Prevalence demonstrated an upward trend among all age groups over time for both algorithms (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions

This population-based study highlights concerning temporal trends in cirrhosis, characterized by rising annual incidence and prevalence estimates, particularly among young adults and females. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive strategies that encompass prevention, early detection, and the delivery of high-quality healthcare and public health initiatives to effectively tackle this escalating health burden.