Development and validation of nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival among patients aged 80 and above with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.

Abstract

Background: The use of nomograms in predicting the prognosis of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), particularly in elderly patients, is not widespread. A validated prognostic model specifically for NSCLC patients over 80 years old holds promising potential for clinical application in forecasting patient outcomes.

Methods: The prognostic value of various factors for NSCLC patients aged 80 and above was evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010-2017). Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves, Cox proportional hazards regression models, and nomogram were utilized to evaluate the impact of each factor on cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Results: A cohort comprising 7045 individuals was selected for inclusion in the analysis. Through rigorous statistical analysis, 10 independent prognostic factors were identified and incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram's receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area under the curve (AUC) was higher than that of the AJCC 7th edition TNM staging system's predicted CSS (0.744 versus 0.602), establishing the superior prognostic value of the nomogram.

Conclusions: We have successfully created a highly accurate and discriminative nomogram that enables oncologists to predict the survival outcome of each individual patient with I/II NSCLC who is 80 years or older.