Change in Wind Renewable Energy Potential Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injections

Abstract

Wind renewable energy (WRE) is an essential component of the global sustainable energy portfolio. Recently, there has been increasing discussion on the potential supplementation of this conventional mitigation portfolio with Solar Radiation Modification (SRM). However, the impact of SRM on conventional mitigation measures has received limited attention to date. In this study, we explore one part of this impact, the potential effect of one type of SRM, Stratospheric Aerosol Injections (SAI), on WRE. Using hourly output from the Earth System Model CNRM-ESM2-1, we compare WRE potential under a medium emission scenario (SSP245) and a high emission scenario (SSP585) with an SRM scenario that has SSP585 baseline conditions and uses SAI to offset warming to approximately SSP245 global warming levels. Our results suggest that SAI may affect surface wind resources by modifying large-scale circulation patterns, such as a significant poleward jet-shift in the Southern Hemisphere. The modeled total global WRE potential is negligibly reduced under SAI compared to the SSP-scenarios. However, regional trends are highly variable, with large increases and decreases in WRE potential frequently reaching 12% across the globe with SAI. This study highlights potential downstream effects of SRM on climatic elements, such as wind patterns, and offers perspectives on its implications for our mitigation efforts.