Paulina Schulz-Antipa , Christian M. García-Witulski , Mariana Conte Grand , Mariano J. Rabassa
{"title":"From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay","authors":"Paulina Schulz-Antipa , Christian M. García-Witulski , Mariana Conte Grand , Mariano J. Rabassa","doi":"10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100139","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in 2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures, with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under the worst climate projections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45520,"journal":{"name":"Regional Science Policy and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Regional Science Policy and Practice","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1757780224003500","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in 2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures, with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under the worst climate projections.
期刊介绍:
Regional Science Policy & Practice (RSPP) is the official policy and practitioner orientated journal of the Regional Science Association International. It is an international journal that publishes high quality papers in applied regional science that explore policy and practice issues in regional and local development. It welcomes papers from a range of academic disciplines and practitioners including planning, public policy, geography, economics and environmental science and related fields. Papers should address the interface between academic debates and policy development and application. RSPP provides an opportunity for academics and policy makers to develop a dialogue to identify and explore many of the challenges facing local and regional economies.