Global analysis of forest tipping points leading to changing water cycle dynamics

IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of Hydrology X Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI:10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100187
Marisol Domínguez-Tuda , Hugo A. Gutiérrez-Jurado
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Abstract

Forest cover loss is increasing at unprecedented rates, affecting the hydrologic systems of major freshwater-producing regions of the world. However, quantification of the tipping points of forest cover loss before hydrologic changes manifest and their impact in water yield and climatic conditions has remained elusive. In this study, we aim to systematically document the critical thresholds of tree cover loss leading to changing hydrologic functioning within regions that experienced extensive drought, fire, or clear-cutting events spanning different climates during the period from 2001 to 2016. Using the Hydrologic Sensitivity Index based on Budyko’s curve, we analyzed the changes in hydrologic responses to climate variability as landcover changes across the affected forests. Critical thresholds were derived by fitting Richard’s Curve function to the observed relationship between growing sensitive area and tree cover loss. Our analysis reveals decrease in water yields and warming trends during the early stages of tree cover loss in tropical forests (c = 16 %), with negative anomalies observed in rainforests of Central Africa and Maritime Southeast Asia. Boreal forests also show low thresholds (c = 18 %) with a strong tendency toward a warmer climate state and no clear tendency in water yields. Mixed forests show moderate thresholds (c = 25 %) with unclear water yield and climate trends. Conversely, Temperate forests exhibit the most resilience to hydrologic regime shifts with high critical thresholds of tree cover loss (c = 46––54 %), but a rapid alteration once their threshold is surpassed resulting primarily in increased water yields and a shift toward cooler climate conditions. As the potential for additional tree cover loss heightens, due to expected increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and wildfires, the analyses presented provide a quantitative framework to monitor and assess the impacts of changing forest cover conditions on the water cycle behavior of some of the largest freshwater producing regions of the world.
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对导致水循环动态变化的森林临界点的全球分析
森林植被丧失正以前所未有的速度加剧,影响着世界主要淡水产区的水文系统。然而,在水文变化显现之前,森林植被丧失的临界点及其对产水量和气候条件的影响一直难以量化。在这项研究中,我们旨在系统地记录 2001 年至 2016 年期间,在经历了大面积干旱、火灾或砍伐事件的不同气候区域内,导致水文功能变化的树木植被损失临界点。利用基于布迪科曲线的水文敏感性指数,我们分析了受影响森林的土地覆盖变化对气候变异的水文响应变化。通过将理查德曲线函数拟合到观察到的生长敏感区域与树木植被损失之间的关系,我们得出了临界阈值。我们的分析表明,在热带雨林树木植被损失的早期阶段(c = 16%),产水量下降,气候呈变暖趋势,在中非和东南亚沿海地区的热带雨林中观察到了负的异常现象。北欧森林也显示出较低的临界值(c = 18%),具有气候变暖的强烈趋势,但在产水量方面没有明显的趋势。混交林显示出中等阈值(c = 25%),产水量和气候趋势不明。与此相反,温带森林对水文系统变化的适应能力最强,其树木植被损失的临界值较高(c = 46-54%),但一旦超过临界值就会迅速发生变化,主要导致产水量增加和气候条件转冷。由于预计干旱和野火的频率和强度会增加,树木覆盖面积损失的可能性也会增加,因此所做的分析提供了一个定量框架,用于监测和评估森林覆盖条件变化对世界上一些最大淡水产区水循环行为的影响。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology X
Journal of Hydrology X Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
2.50%
发文量
20
审稿时长
25 weeks
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