A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract

Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high-frequency, ecosystem-scale CO₂ and CH₄ flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT-Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO₂ and CH₄ emissions. Using a model-data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO₂ exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH₄ module also explained the majority of variance in CH₄ emissions in validation sites (R² = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT-Tidal-CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R_eco, (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH₄ emissions, and (d) CH₄ responses to non-periodic changes in salinity.