Art in times of crisis

IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Economic History Review Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI:10.1111/ehr.13327
Géraldine David, Yuexin Li, Kim Oosterlinck, Luc Renneboog
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Abstract

We trace the long-term performance of the UK art market across a broad set of crises: world wars, economic recessions, financial crises, inflationary periods, and changes in monetary policy. By means of digitalized historical auction archives, we construct art price indices from the early twentieth century onwards and disclose that annual art auction value grew, in real terms, more than seven-fold over this period. The arithmetic annual real return and risk amount to 3.6 per cent and 20.1 per cent, respectively. Art returns plummeted at the onset of wars, but turned positive in the second half of wars when they outperformed stocks, suggesting that art was seen as a safe haven in times of political turmoil. During wars, smaller – and thus more transportable – paintings obtained higher returns. Art returns are sensitive to economic and financial crises, with the largest slumps occurring during the Great Depression, oil crisis, recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s, and the Great Recession. We also document changes in art preferences for paintings’ sizes, schools, liquid art, and artists’ nationalities across crises. Art enters a broad optimal asset portfolio both in non-crisis periods and during war times.

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危机时期的艺术
我们追溯了英国艺术市场在一系列危机中的长期表现:世界大战、经济衰退、金融危机、通货膨胀时期以及货币政策的变化。通过数字化的历史拍卖档案,我们构建了从二十世纪初开始的艺术品价格指数,并揭示了在此期间艺术品拍卖的年实际价值增长超过七倍。算术年实际收益率和风险分别为 3.6% 和 20.1%。艺术品的回报率在战争爆发时急剧下降,但在战争后半期转为正值,其表现优于股票,这表明艺术品被视为政治动荡时期的避风港。在战争期间,较小的、因而更容易运输的绘画作品获得了更高的回报。艺术品的回报率对经济和金融危机非常敏感,最大的衰退发生在大萧条、石油危机、20 世纪 80 年代初和 90 年代初的经济衰退以及大衰退时期。我们还记录了不同危机时期人们对画作尺寸、流派、流动艺术品和艺术家国籍的偏好变化。在非危机时期和战争时期,艺术品都会进入广泛的最优资产组合。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
27.30%
发文量
84
期刊介绍: The Economic History Review is published quarterly and each volume contains over 800 pages. It is an invaluable source of information and is available free to members of the Economic History Society. Publishing reviews of books, periodicals and information technology, The Review will keep anyone interested in economic and social history abreast of current developments in the subject. It aims at broad coverage of themes of economic and social change, including the intellectual, political and cultural implications of these changes.
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