Will It Burn? Characterizing Wildfire Risk for the Sagebrush Conservation Design

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Rangeland Ecology & Management Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI:10.1016/j.rama.2024.08.014
Michele R. Crist , Karen C. Short , Todd B. Cross , Kevin E. Doherty , Julia H. Olszewski
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Abstract

For millennia, wildfire has helped shape the sagebrush biome of the western United States. Over recent decades, historical fire regimes have been altered by several factors, including contemporary climate and fuel conditions, leading to the loss or degradation of hundreds of thousands of hectares (ha) of sagebrush each year. In response to wildfire threats, extensive fuel treatment investments are proposed across the region. To help inform strategic and cost-effective investments, we conducted a quantitative assessment of wildfire risk for the sagebrush biome. We used a geospatial fire modeling approach, customized for the sagebrush biome, to estimate spatially explicit burn probability and expected average annual area burned within three Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes under the Sagebrush Conservation Design: Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas. We further used indices of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive grasses to characterize fire risk and recovery potential. Our approach indicates that nearly 530,000 ha are likely to burn in a typical contemporary fire year across the highest integrity Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes (7% in CSAs and 31% in GOAs). Of the CSAs and GOAs likely to burn, nearly 9 000 and 66 000 ha, respectively, are expected to have low resilience or resistance and therefore highest loss potential. Cost-effective conservation investments should include wildfire protection for high-integrity sagebrush with low resilience or resistance. Protection objectives may be met with strategically placed fuel breaks intended to enhance fire prevention and containment efforts. Fuel treatments, including prescribed fire and mechanical activities outside of fuel breaks, are by contrast best suited for high-integrity areas with relatively high resilience and resistance. Those activities should be risk-informed and intended to maintain or improve ecological integrity and resilience to wildfire rather than to exclude fire altogether.
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它会燃烧吗?确定野火风险的特征,以进行灌木丛保护设计
千百年来,野火帮助塑造了美国西部的鼠尾草生物群落。近几十年来,历史上的火灾机制因当代气候和燃料条件等多种因素而发生了改变,导致每年数十万公顷的鼠尾草损失或退化。为应对野火威胁,建议在整个地区进行广泛的燃料处理投资。为了帮助了解具有成本效益的战略性投资,我们对灌木丛生物群落的野火风险进行了定量评估。我们使用了专为灌木丛生物群落定制的地理空间火灾建模方法,以估算空间明确的燃烧概率以及根据灌木丛保护设计划分的三个灌木丛生态完整性等级内的预期年平均燃烧面积:我们进一步使用了生态恢复指数来估算沙棘灌木生物群落的烧毁概率和预期年平均烧毁面积。我们进一步使用了生态抗干扰能力指数和抵抗入侵草的能力指数来描述火灾风险和恢复潜力。我们的方法表明,在当代一个典型的火灾年中,近 53 万公顷的土地可能会在完整性最高的萨格布鲁什生态完整性等级中被烧毁(在 CSA 中为 7%,在 GOAs 中为 31%)。在可能被烧毁的 CSA 和 GOAs 中,预计分别有近 9 000 公顷和 66 000 公顷的恢复力或抵抗力较低,因此损失可能性最大。具有成本效益的保护投资应包括对复原力或抵抗力较低的高完整性灌木丛进行野火保护。为达到保护目标,可战略性地设置断火带,以加强火灾预防和遏制工作。相比之下,燃料处理(包括燃料隔离带以外的规定用火和机械活动)最适合复原力和抵抗力相对较高的高完整性地区。这些活动应该以风险为导向,旨在保持或改善生态完整性和对野火的恢复能力,而不是完全将火排除在外。
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来源期刊
Rangeland Ecology & Management
Rangeland Ecology & Management 农林科学-环境科学
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
13.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Rangeland Ecology & Management publishes all topics-including ecology, management, socioeconomic and policy-pertaining to global rangelands. The journal''s mission is to inform academics, ecosystem managers and policy makers of science-based information to promote sound rangeland stewardship. Author submissions are published in five manuscript categories: original research papers, high-profile forum topics, concept syntheses, as well as research and technical notes. Rangelands represent approximately 50% of the Earth''s land area and provision multiple ecosystem services for large human populations. This expansive and diverse land area functions as coupled human-ecological systems. Knowledge of both social and biophysical system components and their interactions represent the foundation for informed rangeland stewardship. Rangeland Ecology & Management uniquely integrates information from multiple system components to address current and pending challenges confronting global rangelands.
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