Global air freight flow data for aviation policy modelling

Abstract

Models of air freight are often constrained by a lack of available data. This study brings together different sources of air freight supply and demand data to address this gap. To study air freight operations, we combine schedules, flight tracking data and country-level databases of passenger and freight movements to produce estimates of global flight segment-level capacity and load factors in freighter aircraft and passenger holds for 2019–2021. To study true origin-ultimate destination air freight demand, a freight mode choice model by commodity group is developed for 2019 to fill gaps in mode information in international and national trade datasets, and estimates are made for 2019 and 2021. Initial comparisons of supply and demand data demonstrate that air freight journeys differ significantly from passenger journeys, typically including more flight legs (roughly, around 2, compared to 1.2 for passengers) and greater leg distances (2.2–2.5 times average passenger distance), with significant asymmetry in commodity flows and operations to and from individual countries and regions. These differences persist in 2021, despite COVID-19 induced shifts towards carrying more air freight in freighter aircraft. This research forms a first step towards making available an integrated database of estimated global air freight flows by commodity.