Randomness suppress backward bifurcation in an epidemic model with limited medical resources

Abstract

This paper delves into the dynamic features of a stochastic SIR epidemic model featuring a perturbed transmission rate influenced by white noise. Our primary aim is to unravel the intricate interplay between restricted medical resources, their supply efficiency, and environmental stochasticity, shedding light on their collective impact on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Our findings bring to light a notable distinction from the deterministic counterpart of the model. Specifically, under varying scenarios of medical resource availability and supply efficiency, the stochastic model exhibits a departure from bifurcation phenomena. This stands in contrast to the deterministic model, which is characterized by the presence of both backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation phenomena. To complement and validate our theoretical findings, numerical simulations are employed, providing concrete illustrations of the dynamical phenomena discussed in the paper. This research contributes to a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between stochastic environmental factors, medical resource constraints, and disease transmission dynamics, offering valuable insights for public health management and epidemic control strategies.