Estimating Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic Between 2020-2022 in Korea.

Abstract

Background: The persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had direct and indirect effects on mortality, making it essential to analyze excess mortality to fully understand the impact of the pandemic. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model using number of deaths from Statistics Korea and analyzed excess mortality between 2020 and 2022 according to age, sex, and dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant period.

Methods: Number of all-cause deaths between 2010 and 2022 were obtained from the annual cause-of-death statistics provided by Statistics Korea. COVID-19 mortality data were acquired from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. A multivariate linear regression model with seasonal effect, stratified by sex and age, was used to estimate the number of deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The estimated excess mortality rate was calculated.

Results: Excess mortality was not significant between January 2020 and October 2021. However, it started to increase monthly from November 2021 and reached its highest point during the omicron-dominant period. Specifically, in March and April 2022, during the omicron BA.1/BA.2-dominant period, the estimated median values for excess mortality were the highest at 17,634 and 11,379, respectively. Both COVID-19-related deaths and excess mortality increased with age. A notable increase in excess mortality was observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. In the context of excess mortality per 100,000 population based on the estimated median values in March 2022, the highest numbers were found among males and females aged ≥ 85 years at 1,048 and 910, respectively.

Conclusion: This study revealed that the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic coupled with its high transmissibility not only increased COVID-19-related deaths but also had a significant impact on overall mortality rates, especially in the elderly. Therefore, it is crucial to concentrate healthcare resources and services on the elderly and ensure continued access to healthcare services during pandemics. Establishing an excess mortality monitoring system in the early stages of a pandemic is necessary to understand the impact of infectious diseases on mortality and effectively evaluate pandemic response policies.