Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021).

IF 1.4 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Journal of research in health sciences Pub Date : 2024-09-30 Epub Date: 2024-07-30 DOI:10.34172/jrhs.2024.168
Maryam Rastegar, Vahid Fakoor, Eisa Nazar, Mahshid Nasehi, Saeed Sharafi, Mohammad Taghi Shakeri
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health issue in Iran, especially smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (SPPTB), due to its high transmission rate. Examining the effective reproduction number(Rt ) of SPPTB and patient characteristics is crucial for crafting targeted TB control measures. This study aimed to assess the Rt of SPPTB in Iran from 2011 to 2021 and profile SPPTB patient demographics, initial smear bacilli density, diagnosis delays, and spatial distribution. Study Design: This is a historical cohort study.

Methods: A time-dependent method was used to estimate Rt , and monthly data from the national TB registry were scrutinized from 2011 to 2021.

Results: A decline was observed in SPPTB incidence rates of 50909 SPPTB cases in Iran from 2011 to 2021. Approximately 29.1% of the cases were diagnosed within a month, while 44.5% experienced a one to three-month delay in diagnosis. The analysis revealed substantial heterogeneity in TB transmission dynamics across various provinces of Iran. Provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi exhibited the highest effective reproduction numbers. Additionally, there was a decreasing trend in the effective reproduction numbers across all provinces from 2011 to 2020.

Conclusion: Effective reproduction numbers declined in most provinces from 2011 to 2020 but increased moderately after the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Although SPPTB incidence rates are declining nationally, elevated incidence rates and effective reproduction numbers in regions such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi signify the need for persistent TB management efforts in Iran.

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伊朗涂片阳性肺结核的有效繁殖数量:基于登记册的研究(2011-2021 年)》。
背景:在伊朗,结核病(TB)仍然是一个主要的公共卫生问题,尤其是涂片阳性肺结核(SPTB),因为它的传播率很高。研究 SPPTB 的有效繁殖数(Rt)和患者特征对于制定有针对性的结核病控制措施至关重要。本研究旨在评估 2011 年至 2021 年伊朗 SPPTB 的有效繁殖数,以及 SPPTB 患者的人口统计学特征、初始涂片杆菌密度、诊断延迟和空间分布。研究设计:这是一项历史性队列研究:方法:采用随时间变化的方法估算 Rt,并仔细研究了 2011 年至 2021 年期间国家结核病登记处的月度数据:结果:从 2011 年到 2021 年,在伊朗 50909 例 SPPTB 病例中观察到 SPPTB 发病率有所下降。约 29.1%的病例在一个月内确诊,44.5%的病例诊断延迟了一至三个月。分析表明,伊朗各省的结核病传播动态存在很大差异。锡斯坦和俾路支斯坦、戈勒斯坦、吉兰、胡齐斯坦、德黑兰和呼罗珊拉扎维等省的有效繁殖数量最高。此外,从 2011 年到 2020 年,所有省份的有效繁殖数量都呈下降趋势:从 2011 年到 2020 年,大多数省份的有效繁殖数量都在下降,但在 COVID-19 大流行之后,有效繁殖数量略有上升,这凸显了采取有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性。尽管 SPPTB 的发病率在全国范围内呈下降趋势,但在锡斯坦和俾路支斯坦、戈勒斯坦、吉兰、胡齐斯坦、德黑兰和呼罗珊拉扎维等地区,发病率和有效繁殖数量均有所上升,这表明伊朗需要坚持不懈地开展结核病管理工作。
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来源期刊
Journal of research in health sciences
Journal of research in health sciences PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
13.30%
发文量
7
期刊介绍: The Journal of Research in Health Sciences (JRHS) is the official journal of the School of Public Health; Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, which is published quarterly. Since 2017, JRHS is published electronically. JRHS is a peer-reviewed, scientific publication which is produced quarterly and is a multidisciplinary journal in the field of public health, publishing contributions from Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Public Health, Occupational Health, Environmental Health, Health Education, and Preventive and Social Medicine. We do not publish clinical trials, nursing studies, animal studies, qualitative studies, nutritional studies, health insurance, and hospital management. In addition, we do not publish the results of laboratory and chemical studies in the field of ergonomics, occupational health, and environmental health
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