Incidence, prevalence, and survival of lung cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000-2021: a population-based cohort study.

Abstract

Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide. In the United Kingdom (UK), there has been a major reduction in smoking, the leading risk factor for lung cancer. Therefore, an up-to-date assessment of the trends of lung cancer is required in the UK. This study aims to describe lung cancer burden and trends in terms of incidence, prevalence, and survival from 2000-2021, using two UK primary care databases.

Methods: We performed a population-based cohort study using the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database, compared with CPRD Aurum. Participants aged 18+ years, with 1-year of prior data availability, were included. We estimated lung cancer incidence rates (IRs), period prevalence (PP), and survival at 1, 5 and 10 years after diagnosis using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method.

Results: Overall, 11,388,117 participants, with 45,563 lung cancer cases were studied. The IR of lung cancer was 52.0 [95% confidence interval (CI): 51.5 to 52.5] per 100,000 person-years, with incidence increasing from 2000 to 2021. Females aged over 50 years of age showed increases in incidence over the study period, ranging from increases of 8 to 123 per 100,000 person-years, with the greatest increase in females aged 80-89 years. Alternatively, for males, only cohorts aged over 80 years showed increases in incidence over the study period. The highest IR was observed in people aged 80-89 years. PP in 2021 was 0.18%, with the largest rise seen in participants aged over 60 years. Median survival post-diagnosis increased from 6.6 months in those diagnosed between 2000-2004 to 10.0 months between 2015-2019. Both short and long-term survival was higher in younger cohorts, with 82.7% 1-year survival in those aged 18-29 years, versus 24.2% in the age 90+ years cohort. Throughout the study period, survival was longer in females, with a larger increase in survival over time than in males.

Conclusions: The incidence and prevalence of lung cancer diagnoses in the UK have increased, especially in female and older populations, with a small increase in median survival. This study will enable future comparisons of overall disease burden, so the overall impact may be seen.