Anticipatory evaluation. How to incorporate an anticipatory technique into a theory-driven evaluation process. Results of application in a case study.

Abstract

In recent years, there has been increased focus on strategic learning from impact analysis, including in the field of science, technology, and innovation. In this paper, we propose combining techniques from two fields of study. Firstly, we adopt the approach of addressing impact through productive interactions between science and society, and secondly, we incorporate an anticipatory dimension by integrating game analysis involving key actors. Through a theory-driven evaluation design, we consider expected impacts as promises of the future. Within an anticipatory perspective, the future can be shaped by the interactions among different actors in the present. In this article, we apply this approach step-by-step to a research institute program in Uruguay. We demonstrate how the achieved results offer strategic insights to the program manager for anticipating and attaining the desired impacts. Additionally, we provide summative inputs for accountability using a flexible technique applicable at any stage of the program life cycle. The article concludes with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages compared to other techniques, along with lessons learned that may benefit other evaluators seeking to replicate this approach. Furthermore, we explore potential extensions and opportunities for further improvement in this research.