Youth suicidality risk relative to ambient temperature and heatwaves across climate zones: A time series analysis of emergency department presentations in New South Wales, Australia.

Abstract

Objective: Youth suicidality prevalence continues to rise alongside hot weather severity. Links between these two variables are underexplored. We examined associations between daily temperature and emergency department suicidality presentations by young people. We assessed these associations for five regions covering New South Wales as determined by 'climate zone' and analysed for heatwave effects as well as based on demographic subgroups.

Methods: Daily emergency department presentations for suicidality by people aged 12-24 years across New South Wales, Australia, during warmer months (November to March) from 2012 to 2019 were examined in relation to daily mean temperature and heatwaves (⩾3 consecutive days ⩾ 95th percentile of long-term daily mean temperature) and by climate zone, using a generalised additive model with negative binomial distribution. Risks for age- and sex-based subgroups were also calculated.

Results: New South Wales youth suicidality presentation rates were significantly higher on hotter days. For every 1°C rise above average daily mean temperature, youth suicidality presentations to New South Wales emergency departments increased by 1.3%. Heatwaves did not increase presentation rates beyond single-day daily mean temperature effects. These findings were predominantly replicated across climate zones and demographic subgroups, though the association between suicidality and ambient temperature was weaker in coastal regions including Eastern Sydney.

Conclusion: There is a positive linear association between ambient temperature and youth suicidality presentations to emergency departments. Risks are increased on single hot days, not only during heatwaves. Public health, broader societal approaches to heat and health system planning should consider impacts on youth suicidality of predicted increases in hot weather severity and frequency.