Comparison of GARP and MaxEnt in Modeling Current and Future Geographic Distribution of Ceracris nigricornis Walker (Acrididae, Orthoptera) in China

Abstract

Ceracris nigricornis Walker is an insect of the Acrididae, which can harm bamboo, rice, corn, sorghum and other crops, and can cause serious economic losses. In this study, based on 234 occurrence sites of C. nigricornis obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and literature, and data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, two niche models (GARP, MaxEnt) were used to predict the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China. The result shows that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. nigricornis are min temperature of coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of driest month (bio14) and precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16). From the result of MaxEnt model, it can be seen that the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China is 128.91 × 10⁴ km² under current scenario. It will decrease by 3.19% in the 2050s and then increase by 12.04% in the 2090s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 5.79% in the 2050s and then decrease by 7.53% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 33.03% in 2050s and then decrease by 23.31% in the 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the result of GARP model, it can be seen that the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China is 166.09 × 10⁴ km² under current scenario. It will increase by 8.41% in 2050s and then continue to increase by 6.11% in 2090s under SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 23.84% in the 2050s and then decrease by 0.88% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 34.37% in 2050s and then decrease by 1.75% in 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The boundaries of suitable areas will expand to the north and southwest of China under future climate change scenarios, specially in Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan. Local forestry authorities should strengthen the monitoring of bamboo forests to prevent the damage caused by the introduction of C. nigricornis.