[Simulating Changes in Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Analyzing Influencing Factors in the Central Zhejiang under the Background of LUCC].

Q2 Environmental Science Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202309192
Jia-Jia Zhou, Yu Liu, Li-Jun Feng, Xiao-Lan Wen, Hao Guo
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Abstract

Central Zhejiang is the key ecological function area of Zhejiang Province and an important part of the Qiantang River ecological corridor. Conducting simulations of ecosystem carbon storage changes and analyzing influencing factors under land-use changes in this region is of significant importance for achieving the goals of "peak carbon" and "carbon neutrality" at an early stage. This study, based on the land use data of five periods from 1980 to 2020 in central Zhejiang, coupled the GeoSOS-FLUS and the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in the region over time and project for the year 2030. The study also explored the impact of socio-economic and natural factors on changes in carbon storage. The results showed that: ① Between 1980 and 2020, urban construction land in the Zhejiang Central Region increased by 289.91%, with cultivated land and forest land being the main sources, leading to a 3% decrease in ecosystem carbon storage, amounting to 588.88×104 tons. ② High-value areas of carbon storage in the Zhejiang Central Region were concentrated in P'an-an County, Jinyun County, Wuyi County, and other areas. ③ Under the two different scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, carbon storage in the research area was projected to decrease by 1.05% and 0.05%, respectively, by 2030 compared to that in 2020. ④ Natural factors dominated the distribution of carbon storage, but their influence was gradually decreasing over time. The impact of socio-economic factors was increasing, and the combined effect of socio-economic and natural factors far outweighed the influence of a single factor on carbon storage distribution. These findings can serve as a scientific reference and guide for mitigating carbon loss in ecosystems, promoting ecosystem protection, facilitating sustainable social development, and achieving the "dual carbon" goals in Zhejiang and other regions nationwide.

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[LUCC背景下浙中地区生态系统碳储量变化模拟及影响因素分析]。
浙中地区是浙江省重点生态功能区和钱塘江生态廊道的重要组成部分。开展该区域土地利用变化下生态系统碳储量变化模拟和影响因素分析,对于早日实现 "碳峰值 "和 "碳中和 "目标具有重要意义。本研究基于浙中地区1980-2020年五个时段的土地利用数据,结合GeoSOS-FLUS和InVEST模型,分析了该地区碳储量随时间的时空变化,并预测了2030年的碳储量变化。研究还探讨了社会经济和自然因素对碳储量变化的影响。结果表明:①1980-2020年间,浙中地区城市建设用地增加了289.91%,主要来源为耕地和林地,导致生态系统碳储量减少了3%,为588.88×104吨。浙中地区碳储量高值区主要集中在普安县、缙云县、武义县等地。在自然发展和生态保护两种不同情景下,预计到 2030 年,研究区的碳储量将比 2020 年分别减少 1.05%和 0.05%。自然因素在碳储量分布中占主导地位,但随着时间的推移,其影响逐渐减弱。社会经济因素的影响逐渐增大,社会经济因素和自然因素的综合影响远大于单一因素对碳储量分布的影响。这些研究结果可为浙江及全国其他地区减缓生态系统碳损失、促进生态系统保护、推动社会可持续发展、实现 "双碳 "目标提供科学参考和指导。
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来源期刊
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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