[Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin].

Abstract

Scientific assessment of industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and identification of its influencing factors are of great importance for promoting green transformation, ecological protection, and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Considering nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin as the research objects； using relevant data on industrial development and energy consumption in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019； and with the help of IPCC carbon emission measurement, spatial autocorrelation, and LMDI decomposition, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from industries and industrial sectors in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed. Reasonable suggestions were put forward for reducing the carbon emissions from industries in the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2019, industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed a fluctuating growth trend, with a decreasing growth rate. The spatial pattern changed from "low in the upstream and high in the middle and downstream" to "high and low value distribution," and the spatial difference gradually expanded. ② The high carbon industry was the most important source of industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, accounting for 96.35% of the carbon emissions between the industries with a continuous growth trend, which was a significant difference. The middle and low carbon industry carbon emissions and the total proportion was low, showing different fluctuations； nine provinces and nine industrial industries had significant spatial variability. ③ Energy structure intensity, economic scale, and population scale promoted the increase in industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and energy consumption intensity had an inhibitory effect on the increase in carbon emissions. The economic scale effect was positive and significant, which offset the negative effect of energy consumption intensity. Spatial variability was observed in the contribution value of the influence effect of the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the industry in nine provinces.