The Geographical Conditioning of Regional Differentiation Characterising the COVID-19 Pandemic in European Countries.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the influence of selected geographical factors on the diversity of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe's regions, and on its dynamics across the continent. The work took into account 250 of NUTS-2 regions. The datasets included the course of the COVID-19 pandemic (two dependent variables), intervening actions (four variables of the research background), and potential environmental and socio-economic conditioning (twelve independent variables). The dependent variables' set was composed of two indexes: morbidity and temporal inertia. The temporal scope of the research was 23 March 2020-15 May 2022, with weekly resolution. By means of multiple linear regression model, the influence of the administrative actions and of the selected natural and socio-economic factors was assessed. Finally, a synthetic Regional Epidemic Vulnerability Index (REVI) for each individual region was calculated. It allowed us to classify the regions into three categories: resistant, neutral, or sensitive. REVI's spatial distribution indicates that the zone of above-average vulnerability occurred in the western part of Europe and around the Alps. Therefore, focus ought to extend beyond regional statistics, towards spatial relationships, like contiguous or transit position. This research also validated the strong impact of national borders.