Global, regional, and national burden of brain and central nervous system cancers for males from 1990 to 2021 and its predicted level in the next 25 years.

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY Neuroepidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI:10.1159/000541917

Aierpati Maimaiti, Maidina Tuersun, Xixian Wang, Maimaitili Mijiti, Hao Wu, Chunyu Song, Zengliang Wang, Yongxin Wang

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Abstract

Background: A study of the global burden of cerebral and central nervous system (CNS) cancers from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) indicates that these cancers significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality internationally. To fully understand the global impact of CNS cancer, expanded research efforts are essential. We analyzed the temporal trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and made projections for the expected burden from 2020 through 2044.

Methods: We tapped into GBD 2021 Study data to evaluate CNS cancer incidence and trends among males. Prevalence was assessed with DisMod-MR, trends via cluster analysis, and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) calculated via linear regression. Forecasts for 2022-2044 used APC and BAPC models, with a P-value < 0.05 considered significant. Analyses relied on R software 4.0.2.

Results: In 2021, males experienced between 148,118 and 232,469 new brain and CNS cancer cases, indicating increased global burden from 1990 to 2021. An observed link between the prevalence's EAPCs and Human Development Indices (HDIs) suggests higher incidence in more developed regions. Projections using the APC model suggest rising numbers of cases and losses in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2044, while Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs) are expected to decrease overall.

Conclusions: In summary, a higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) correlates with better outcomes for CNS cancer due to early medical interventions in regions with strong healthcare systems. This demonstrates the need for equitable healthcare policies that focus on improving diagnostic capabilities and professional training to enhance survival rates universally.

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1990 年至 2021 年全球、地区和国家的男性脑癌和中枢神经系统癌症负担及其未来 25 年的预测水平。

背景：全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Diseases，GBD）对脑和中枢神经系统（CNS）癌症的全球负担进行的一项研究表明，这些癌症严重影响了国际发病率和死亡率。要充分了解中枢神经系统癌症对全球的影响，必须扩大研究范围。我们分析了 1990 年至 2021 年疾病负担的时间趋势，并对 2020 年至 2044 年的预期负担进行了预测：我们利用 GBD 2021 研究数据评估了中枢神经系统癌症在男性中的发病率和趋势。我们使用 DisMod-MR 评估了发病率，通过聚类分析评估了发病趋势，并通过线性回归计算了估计年百分比变化 (EAPC)。对 2022-2044 年的预测使用了 APC 和 BAPC 模型，P 值为 0.05 即为显著。分析采用 R 软件 4.0.2：2021 年，男性新增脑癌和中枢神经系统癌症病例为 148 118 至 232469 例，表明从 1990 年到 2021 年全球癌症负担加重。观察到的流行率 EAPC 与人类发展指数 (HDI) 之间的联系表明，较发达地区的发病率较高。使用 APC 模型进行的预测表明，2020 年至 2044 年期间，病例数和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）损失不断增加，而年龄标准化比率（ASRs）预计总体上会下降：总之，在医疗保健系统发达的地区，较高的社会人口指数（SDI）与中枢神经系统癌症的较好预后相关，这归因于早期医疗干预。这表明有必要制定公平的医疗保健政策，重点提高诊断能力和专业培训，以普遍提高生存率。

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来源期刊

Neuroepidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

9.90

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： ''Neuroepidemiology'' is the only internationally recognised peer-reviewed periodical devoted to descriptive, analytical and experimental studies in the epidemiology of neurologic disease. The scope of the journal expands the boundaries of traditional clinical neurology by providing new insights regarding the etiology, determinants, distribution, management and prevention of diseases of the nervous system.