Impacts of the Thermocline Feedback Uncertainty on El Niño Simulations in the Tropical Pacific

IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI:10.1029/2024JC021384
Tiaoye Li, Lingjiang Tao, Rong-Hua Zhang
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Abstract

As a key dynamic element of the Bjerknes feedback mechanism, the thermocline effect (TE) is critically important to El Niño modeling. In this study, the potential influence of TE-related parametric uncertainties on El Niño is investigated using the conditional nonlinear optimal parametric perturbation (CNOP) method based on an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The optimal perturbation of the TE-related parameter (OTEP), which substantially affects El Niño simulations, is estimated through the CNOP approach. Results reveal that the El Niño simulation is highly sensitive to the TE uncertainty in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with OTEP-induced simulation errors demonstrating an El Niño-like growth trend. On one hand, as indicated by the simulated El Niño intensity, the uncertainty in the TE in the eastern region can easily affect the strength of the Bjerknes feedback-related thermocline effect and atmospheric circulation. On the other hand, the enhanced TE is highly favored to accelerate the growth of the SST error due to the air–sea interaction, thus severely affecting the El Niño simulations. Therefore, adequately representing the TE in the equatorial eastern Pacific is emphasized for effectively improving El Niño simulations.

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热跃层反馈不确定性对热带太平洋厄尔尼诺模拟的影响
作为比克尼斯反馈机制的一个关键动态要素,温跃层效应(TE)对厄尔尼诺现象的模拟至关重要。本研究以中间耦合模式(ICM)为基础,采用条件非线性最优参数扰动(CNOP)方法,研究了与 TE 相关的参数不确定性对厄尔尼诺现象的潜在影响。通过 CNOP 方法估算了对厄尔尼诺模拟有重大影响的 TE 相关参数(OTEP)的最优扰动。结果表明,厄尔尼诺模拟对赤道东太平洋 TE 的不确定性高度敏感,OTEP 引起的模拟误差呈现出类似厄尔尼诺的增长趋势。一方面,如模拟的厄尔尼诺强度所示,东部地区 TE 的不确定性很容易影响与 Bjerknes 反馈相关的热层效应和大气环流的强度。另一方面,由于海气相互作用,增强的 TE 极易加速海温误差的增长,从而严重影响厄尔尼诺现象的模拟。因此,要有效地改进厄尔尼诺模拟,就必须充分反映赤道东太平洋的 TE。
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来源期刊
Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans
Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans Earth and Planetary Sciences-Oceanography
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
13.90%
发文量
429
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