Exploratory modeling of social-ecological systems

Abstract

Navigating social-ecological systems toward sustainable trajectories is an important challenge of the Anthropocene. Models of social-ecological systems can increase our understanding of how social and ecological subsystems interact, their response to environmental changes, and how their dynamics may be altered by management interventions. However, the level of representational detail required for models to describe a particular social-ecological system with high fidelity (i.e., accurately quantifying system dynamics) may hamper both the interpretability of model results and our ability to identify key processes and feedbacks within the system. In contrast, stylized models describe simplified interactions between a small subset of social-ecological system elements. Stylized models are a useful tool to identify potential consequences of specific key processes and feedbacks on system functioning. However, the relatively low level of representational detail in these models limits their ability to deliver concrete management options for a particular social-ecological system. Here, we describe how an exploratory modeling approach can utilize the strengths of stylized models before the construction of social-ecological system models with high fidelity and representational detail. This exploratory modeling approach is an iterative strategy, with the initial steps comprising the development of stylized models informed by empirical observations. We illustrate this with two examples of stylized modeling of isolated and connected social-ecological systems. Through repeated confrontation of alternative models with empirical data, exploratory modeling provides useful stepping stones toward the development of models that describe social-ecological systems in increasingly specific settings with increasing levels of representational detail. When these latter types of models reach a high level of fidelity, they could be used for scenario-based analyses and participatory decision-making processes. At this stage, the conceptual insights previously obtained during the exploratory modeling phase may aid in the interpretation and communication of the outcomes of scenario-based analyses. Hence, exploratory modeling aims to create a synergy between the insights obtained from stylized models and system-specific, high-fidelity models in order to generate a deep understanding of the drivers of social-ecological system dynamics, and how to leverage these drivers to initiate desired changes.