A flexible data-driven approach to co-producing drought vulnerability assessments

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Ecosphere Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI:10.1002/ecs2.70040
Shelley D. Crausbay, Kimberly R. Hall, Molly S. Cross, Meghan Halabisky, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jesse Anderson, Ann Schwend
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Abstract

Intensifying weather events are key characteristics of climate change that are fundamentally changing ecological disturbance regimes. Intensifying drought is a particular threat to species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services worldwide. Proactive drought adaptation measures are acutely needed, but without a better understanding of drought vulnerability at the appropriate scale and geography, such measures may not be effective, or even anticipated as potential options. A recent conceptual framework for ecological drought aligns a holistic suite of potential drivers with the key components of climate change vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). We leverage the ecological drought framework and components of vulnerability to introduce a six-step process for developing a drought vulnerability assessment (DVA) that (1) is place-based and avoids mismatches between assessment geography and management action, (2) uses existing empirical datasets and leverages machine learning techniques and remotely sensed data from a recent drought, (3) emphasizes the inclusion of stakeholders and the importance of data visualization and science communication, and (4) is flexible and adaptable to a wide range of planning contexts. We illustrate the DVA process with a case study for forested watersheds in the Missouri Headwaters (MH), Montana, USA, that is focused on the impact of an early 2000s drought event on forest health. We show how the DVA provides insights on drought vulnerability that are helpful starting points for co-developing region-specific management actions to prepare for the next drought, including strategies to enhance ecologically available water, reduce competition for water, promote ecosystem persistence under drought conditions, and prioritize sites for forest restoration, transition, or protection. The work described here provides a model for developing a DVA in other places that, when used in a participatory adaptation planning process, supports the implementation of effective adaptation strategies.

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共同编制干旱脆弱性评估的灵活数据驱动方法
不断加剧的天气事件是气候变化的主要特征,正在从根本上改变生态干扰机制。不断加剧的干旱对全世界的物种、生态系统和生态系统服务构成了特别的威胁。我们急需采取积极的干旱适应措施,但如果不能更好地了解干旱在适当规模和地理环境中的脆弱性,这些措施可能不会有效,甚至无法作为潜在的备选方案。最近的一个生态干旱概念框架将一整套潜在的驱动因素与气候变化脆弱性的关键组成部分(暴露程度、敏感性和适应能力)结合起来。我们利用生态干旱框架和脆弱性的组成部分,介绍了制定干旱脆弱性评估(DVA)的六步流程,该流程(1)以地方为基础,避免评估地理环境与管理行动之间的不匹配;(2)使用现有的经验数据集,并利用机器学习技术和近期干旱的遥感数据;(3)强调利益相关者的参与以及数据可视化和科学交流的重要性;(4)具有灵活性,可适应各种规划环境。我们以美国蒙大拿州密苏里河源头(MH)森林流域的案例研究来说明 DVA 流程,该案例研究的重点是 2000 年代初的干旱事件对森林健康的影响。我们展示了 DVA 如何提供有关干旱脆弱性的见解,这些见解有助于共同制定针对特定区域的管理行动,为下一次干旱做好准备,包括提高生态可用水量、减少对水的竞争、促进干旱条件下生态系统的持续性以及优先考虑森林恢复、过渡或保护地点等战略。本文描述的工作为其他地方开发 DVA 提供了一个模式,在参与式适应规划过程中使用 DVA 时,可支持实施有效的适应战略。
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来源期刊
Ecosphere
Ecosphere ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
378
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.
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