Space-time modelling of soil organic carbon stock change at multiple scales: Case study from Hungary

Abstract

The role of soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial not only for numerous soil functions and processes but also for addressing various environmental crises and challenges we face. Consequently, the demand for information on the spatiotemporal variability of SOC is increasing, posing new methodological challenges, such as the need for information on SOC and SOC changes with quantified uncertainty across a wide variety of spatial scales and temporal periods. Our objective was to present a methodology based on a combination of machine learning and space–time geostatistics to predict the spatiotemporal variability of SOC stock with quantified uncertainty at various spatial supports (i.e., point support, 1 × 1 km, 5 × 5 km, 10 × 10 km, 25 × 25 km, counties, and the entire country) for Hungary, between 1992 and 2016. The role of geostatistics is pivotal, as it accounts for the spatiotemporal correlation of the interpolation errors, which is essential for reliably quantifying the uncertainty associated with spatially aggregated SOC stock and SOC stock change predictions. Five times repeated 10-fold leave-location-out cross-validation was used to evaluate the point support predictions and uncertainty quantifications, yielding acceptable results for both SOC stock (ME = −0.897, RMSE = 19.358, MEC = 0.321, and G = 0.912) and SOC stock change (ME = 0.414, RMSE = 16.626, MEC = 0.160, and G = 0.952). We compiled a series of maps of SOC stock predictions between 1992 and 2016 for each support, along with the quantified uncertainty, which is unprecedented in Hungary. It was demonstrated that the larger the support, the smaller the prediction uncertainty, which facilitates the identification and delineation of larger areas with statistically significant SOC stock changes. Moreover, the methodology can overcome the limitations of recent approaches in the spatiotemporal modelling of SOC, allowing the prediction of SOC and SOC changes, with quantified uncertainty, for any year, time period, and spatial scale. This methodology is capable of meeting the current and anticipated demands for dynamic information on SOC at both national and international levels.