Connectedness between international oil and China's new energy industry chain: A time-frequency analysis based on TVP-VAR model

Abstract

With the growing prominence of global environmental concerns, the interplay between the oil and new energy industries has become increasingly vital. We employ a connectedness approach based on the TVP-VAR model to explore the dynamic connectedness in both time and frequency domains between the oil and various industries within the new energy industry chains. Empirical findings reveal total connectedness of approximately 70 %, primarily manifested as inter-industry associations within the new energy industry and total connectedness predominantly emerges in short term and is sensitive to extreme events. Additionally, the oil and wind power industries have consistently played roles as net recipients of risk. Conversely, the photovoltaic, energy storage, and new energy battery industries have consistently acted as net risk propagators. The roles of the hydroelectric, nuclear power, and new energy vehicle sectors in risk propagation vary with different frequency components. Thirdly, we identify six pairs of industry combinations exhibiting significant two-way spillover effects. Finally, after two robustness tests, the above conclusions remain valid. These research findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors.