Scenario simulation of carbon balance in carbon peak pilot cities under the background of the "dual carbon" goals

IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105910
Jinting Zhang , Kui Yang , Jingdong Wu , Ying Duan , Yanni Ma , Jingzhi Ren , Zenan Yang
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Abstract

Under the "dual carbon" goals, targeting issues such as the difficulty in changing the high-carbon economic development model in pilot cities and the inability of previous prediction models to meet current needs, this paper provides an in-depth analysis of carbon stocks and emissions in a peak pilot City spanning from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing the PLUS model, this study forecasts land use/cover data under diverse future scenarios, encompassing natural development (ND) as well as ecological protection (EP). Moreover, the Bi-LSTM deep learning model is developed using six influencing factors to simulate carbon emissions. The research also examined the spatiotemporal changes in carbon budget and balance. The findings of the study reveal several significant conclusions:(1) The PLUS model demonstrated high predictive accuracy in forecasting future land-use types, achieving an average overall accuracy exceeding 0.89 and a Kappa value of 0.8568; The Bi-LSTM model achieved the highest accuracy among all competing models, with an R2 score reaching 0.864. (2) Under the EP scenario from 2020 to 2030, the rate of decline in carbon storage has slowed down (6.44×106t of carbon storage have been avoided from disappearing), and land use efficiency has significantly improved. Due to the protection of ecological land, a certain carbon sink effect has been generated, resulting in lower regional carbon emissions compared to the ND scenario, emphasizing the importance and necessity of setting ecological red lines for carbon stock optimization. (3) Carbon payment areas are primarily concentrated in urban centers, and over time, these areas and carbon compensation zones each account half of the total area. (4) Under different scenarios, the carbon balance of built land has been partially mitigated, and the overall trend is developing favorably.
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双碳 "目标背景下碳峰值试点城市碳平衡情景模拟
在 "双碳 "目标下,针对试点城市高碳经济发展模式难以改变、以往预测模型无法满足当前需求等问题,本文对某试点高峰城市 2000 年至 2020 年的碳储量和排放量进行了深入分析。利用 PLUS 模型,本研究预测了不同未来情景下的土地利用/覆盖数据,包括自然发展(ND)和生态保护(EP)。此外,还利用六个影响因素开发了 Bi-LSTM 深度学习模型,以模拟碳排放量。研究还考察了碳预算和碳平衡的时空变化。研究结果揭示了几个重要结论:(1)PLUS 模型在预测未来土地利用类型方面表现出较高的预测准确性,平均总体准确性超过 0.89,Kappa 值为 0.8568;Bi-LSTM 模型在所有竞争模型中准确性最高,R2 值达到 0.864。(2)2020-2030 年 EP 情景下,碳储量下降速度减缓(避免了 6.44×106t 碳储量的消失),土地利用效率显著提高。由于对生态用地的保护,产生了一定的碳汇效应,区域碳排放量较 ND 情景有所降低,凸显了设定生态红线对碳储量优化的重要性和必要性。(3)碳支付区主要集中在城市中心,随着时间的推移,这些区域和碳补偿区各占总面积的一半。(4)在不同情景下,建设用地碳平衡得到部分缓解,总体趋势向好发展。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Cities and Society
Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
22.00
自引率
13.70%
发文量
810
审稿时长
27 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;
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