Unique seismic and eruption precursors to the 1996 and ongoing magmatic eruptions of Popocatépetl: Coupled and fluidized bed events

Abstract

We describe three unique types of seismicity at Popocatépetl volcano that accompanied the initial vent-clearing eruptive activity in December 1994 through the eruption of the first two domes in 1996. We identify and describe two types of coupled events, 1) spasmodic burst coupled events, a burst of volcano tectonic (VT) events coupled with a large eruptive explosion (21 December 1994 and 5 March 1996), and 2) explosion-couplet coupled events, a pair of events with a deeper first event and whose second event correlates with a small gas emission or explosion. Explosion-couplets occurred with the onset of magmatic ash dominated eruptions and their properties are very useful for forecasting magmatic eruptions at Popocatépetl volcano. Measurable quantities including the time between the first and second phase, daily numbers of events, and the amplitude ratio between the second and first phase systematically changed as the first two domes approached the surface between March and June 1996. Interevent times decreased from many tens of seconds to a few seconds, while amplitude ratios increased from about 2 to 10 or more. Event numbers increased prior to and during initial dome extrusion. These changes were used to forecast the eruption of the first two domes. We also report on another unusual type of low frequency seismicity that accompanied emissions called fluidized bed events. Fluidized bed events occurred following the initial eruption on 21 December 1994, beginning mid-January 1995, when SO₂ emissions were initially elevated, and the conduit was open. Fluidized bed events began to wane in late March through the end of May 1995 as did SO₂ emissions. Consistent gas, visual and seismic observations by Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED) enabled the direct correlation of the gas, magma, and seismic phenomena.