Future shifts in climatic conditions promoting northward expansion of the Mediterranean climate in the circum-Mediterranean region

Abstract

In the upcoming decades, precipitation and temperature patterns are expected to shift in the Mediterranean basin due to global warming, potentially having an influence on the environment and the economy in the area. Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from 15 global climate models (GCMs) developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Mediterranean Climate Envelop (MCE), as defined by Daget’s (1977) criteria, is projected under two climate change scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and for two future periods: 2050s and 2070s. According to the findings, the MCE is expected to expand by 3.51 and 4.93% in the 2050s under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, in comparison to the current state. This expansion is expected to reach 5.28 and 9.87% for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, in 2070s. For both situations and durations, MCE contraction would be minor, however, at less than 1%. More than 99% of the present MCE would stay stable proportionately. The northern Mediterranean region is mostly concerned by the MCE’s expansion. The SSP2-4.5 scenario predicts that by the 2070s, expansion zones will occupy 674,183 km², with 64% of the area located in Southern Europe and 36% in Western Asia. In SSP5-8.5 scenario, this area is expected to be significantly larger, estimated to be approximately 1,256,881 km²; 67% in Southern Europe and 33% in Western Asia.