Foresight in EU policy-making: Purpose, mindsets and methods

IF 1.4 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW European Law Journal Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI:10.1111/eulj.12522
Lieve Van Woensel
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Abstract

This article examines the foundational principles and methodologies of foresight and their integration into EU policy-making. It explores how foresight can improve policy analysis to create future-ready, resilient decisions amid uncertainties. By synthesising empirical evidence and interpreting multifaceted issues through an interdisciplinary lens, foresight provides EU policymakers with tools to make informed decisions that remain adaptable in the face of unpredictability. The author argues that foresight, through comprehensive analysis of trends, uncertainties and potential challenges, can guide policymakers in forming future-focused strategies. Key foresight methods emphasised include horizon scanning, systems analysis, stakeholder engagement and scenario planning. The article advocates a holistic policy approach, urging analysts to acknowledge biases and assumptions while integrating diverse perspectives. Concluding with a framework for responsible policy-making, the article argues that foresight can shape evidence-based, inclusive and transparent strategies, ensuring that the EU will be prepared for unpredictable futures.

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欧盟决策中的前瞻性:目的、心态和方法
本文探讨了展望的基本原则和方法及其与欧盟决策的结合。文章探讨了展望如何改进政策分析,从而在不确定的情况下做出适应未来、有弹性的决策。通过综合经验证据和从跨学科的角度解释多方面的问题,展望为欧盟决策者提供了做出明智决策的工具,使其在面对不可预测的情况时仍能保持适应性。作者认为,通过对趋势、不确定性和潜在挑战进行全面分析,展望可以指导决策者制定以未来为重点的战略。文章强调的主要展望方法包括前景扫描、系统分析、利益相关者参与和情景规划。文章提倡采用整体政策方法,敦促分析人员承认偏见和假设,同时整合不同观点。最后,文章提出了一个负责任的决策框架,认为展望可以形成以证据为基础、包容和透明的战略,确保欧盟为不可预测的未来做好准备。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: The European Law Journal represents an authoritative new approach to the study of European Law, developed specifically to express and develop the study and understanding of European law in its social, cultural, political and economic context. It has a highly reputed board of editors. The journal fills a major gap in the current literature on all issues of European law, and is essential reading for anyone studying or practising EU law and its diverse impact on the environment, national legal systems, local government, economic organizations, and European citizens. As well as focusing on the European Union, the journal also examines the national legal systems of countries in Western, Central and Eastern Europe and relations between Europe and other parts of the world, particularly the United States, Japan, China, India, Mercosur and developing countries. The journal is published in English but is dedicated to publishing native language articles and has a dedicated translation fund available for this purpose. It is a refereed journal.
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