Biological traits and biome features mediate responses of terrestrial bird demography to droughts.

Abstract

Changing drought regimes are a rising threat to biodiversity, yet their impacts on wildlife vary greatly. Acknowledging the factors associated with these consequences brings novel insights into species vulnerability resulting from extreme climatic events and facilitates effective mitigation of climate change risks. Based on 319 observations from 29 peer-reviewed studies on birds-a well-monitored taxonomic group-we extract the responses of demographic metrics to droughts for 204 species across eight terrestrial biomes to examine the consequences of droughts. According to relevant studies, we chose the factors potentially moderating bird demography under droughts and compiled the data for these factors from published datasets. A meta-analysis is performed to determine the drought effect on bird demography at individual and population levels, accounting for the influence of species traits, timescale and severity of droughts, as well as biome features. The results show that droughts have an overall negative effect on bird demography, and the effect is mediated by different factors at each level. For individuals exposed to droughts, declines in demographic rates are found to be related to narrower extents of occurrence of species, and a significant overall reduction in demographic rates is identified for individuals residing in deserts and xeric shrublands. At the population level, declines in abundance or reproductive performance are generally identified for invertivores, frugivores, nectarivores and omnivores; short-lived species with small clutch sizes also show greater susceptibilities under the impacts of droughts. Our findings additionally suggest that the demographic vulnerability of bird individuals and populations could be affected by the duration and magnitude of drought episodes. Although our results are subject to publication bias, these conclusions advance the assessment of vulnerability to extreme climatic events that used to be based on equally weighted species traits and support bird conservation by prioritizing the declining populations of species with drought-susceptible traits.