A prediction model of PTSD in the Israeli population in the aftermath of october 7th, 2023, terrorist attack and the Israel-Hamas war.

IF 3.5 4区 医学 Q1 HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES Israel Journal of Health Policy Research Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1186/s13584-024-00644-6
Dana Katsoty, Michal Greidinger, Yuval Neria, Aviv Segev, Ido Lurie
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Abstract

Background: On October 7th, 2023, a mass terror attack was launched by Hamas militants, which was followed by the Israel-Hamas war. These events constitute a nationwide trauma with major ramifications for public mental health. This article presents an evidence-based model for the prediction of the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) related to the terrorist attack and the war.

Main body: The creation of the model consisted of several steps. Firstly, the Israeli population was divided into six groups based on the intensity, context, and type of traumatic exposure (direct exposure to terror, close proximity to terror, soldiers in combat and support units, intense exposure to rocket attacks, moderate exposure to rocket attacks, and indirectly affected communities), and the population size of each group was assessed using official national databases. Secondly, an estimation of the expected prevalence of PTSD in each of the exposure groups was based on a review of the relevant literature. A random-effects meta-analysis of the prevalence rates was conducted separately per each exposure group. Finally, the predicted number of PTSD causalities in the population was calculated by multiplying the group size and the PTSD prevalence estimation. Based on population size and estimated PTSD prevalence within each exposure category, the model predicts that approximately 5.3% (N = 519,923) of the Israeli population (95% confidence interval, 1.64-9%), may develop PTSD as a result of the terrorist attack and the war.

Conclusions: The predicted number of individuals with PTSD following mass trauma is expected to be considerable. The presented model can assist policymakers, clinicians, and researchers in preparing and devising adequate interventions for the mental health needs of large populations. Moreover, this model can be applied in other instances of mass-trauma exposure.

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2023 年 10 月 7 日恐怖袭击和以色列-哈马斯战争后以色列人创伤后应激障碍预测模型。
背景介绍2023 年 10 月 7 日,哈马斯武装分子发动了大规模恐怖袭击,随后爆发了以色列-哈马斯战争。这些事件构成了全国性的创伤,对公众心理健康产生了重大影响。本文提出了一个基于证据的模型,用于预测与恐怖袭击和战争有关的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)的发病率:该模型的创建包括几个步骤。首先,根据遭受创伤的强度、背景和类型(直接遭受恐怖袭击、近距离接触恐怖袭击、战斗和支援部队士兵、强烈遭受火箭弹袭击、中度遭受火箭弹袭击和间接受影响社区)将以色列人口分为六组,并利用国家官方数据库评估每组的人口数量。其次,在对相关文献进行回顾的基础上,估算了创伤后应激障碍在各暴露组中的预期患病率。对每个暴露组的患病率分别进行随机效应荟萃分析。最后,将群体规模与创伤后应激障碍患病率估计值相乘,计算出人群中创伤后应激障碍因果关系的预测人数。根据人口规模和每个暴露类别中创伤后应激障碍的估计患病率,模型预测以色列人口中约有 5.3% (N = 519,923 人)(95% 置信区间,1.64%-9%)的人可能会因恐怖袭击和战争而患上创伤后应激障碍:预计在大规模创伤后患创伤后应激障碍的人数相当可观。所提出的模型可以帮助政策制定者、临床医生和研究人员为满足大量人群的心理健康需求做好准备并制定适当的干预措施。此外,该模型还可应用于其他大规模创伤事件。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
4.40%
发文量
38
审稿时长
28 weeks
期刊最新文献
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