{"title":"Dynamic integrated simulation of carbon emission reduction potential in China's building sector","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2024.105944","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The building sector has received increasing attention due to its significant contribution to carbon emissions and great reduction potential. With continuous technology implementation, it is critical to identify the trajectories of emissions and potential reduction for China's building sector to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study develops an integrated model by combining the system dynamics (SD) model and the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to estimate energy consumption and carbon emissions of different types of buildings. The LEAP model is constructed based on the predictions from the SD model, which identifies the critical activity level parameters including number of households and building stocks by type. Coupled with scenario analysis, the model is applied to simulate the building emissions reduction potential and the contribution of five mitigation technologies across four scenarios. The results indicate that carbon emissions will peak at 2.80 Billion tons (Bt) in 2032 under the business as usual scenario (BAS). By 2060, reductions of 28.55 %, 59.03 %, and 76.53 % will be achieved under the advanced technology scenario (ATS), intersectoral synergistic scenario (ISS), and continuous improvement scenario (CIS), respectively. Among the five technologies, electrification and efficient end-use device technologies contribute the greatest reductions of 0.16 Bt and 0.23 Bt, respectively. Under the CIS, carbon emissions will advance toward 2024 with a peak of 2.47 Bt. This study not only provides a theoretical tool for energy and emissions analysis but also formulates targeted technology roadmaps for building sector emission mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sustainable Cities and Society","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670724007686","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The building sector has received increasing attention due to its significant contribution to carbon emissions and great reduction potential. With continuous technology implementation, it is critical to identify the trajectories of emissions and potential reduction for China's building sector to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study develops an integrated model by combining the system dynamics (SD) model and the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to estimate energy consumption and carbon emissions of different types of buildings. The LEAP model is constructed based on the predictions from the SD model, which identifies the critical activity level parameters including number of households and building stocks by type. Coupled with scenario analysis, the model is applied to simulate the building emissions reduction potential and the contribution of five mitigation technologies across four scenarios. The results indicate that carbon emissions will peak at 2.80 Billion tons (Bt) in 2032 under the business as usual scenario (BAS). By 2060, reductions of 28.55 %, 59.03 %, and 76.53 % will be achieved under the advanced technology scenario (ATS), intersectoral synergistic scenario (ISS), and continuous improvement scenario (CIS), respectively. Among the five technologies, electrification and efficient end-use device technologies contribute the greatest reductions of 0.16 Bt and 0.23 Bt, respectively. Under the CIS, carbon emissions will advance toward 2024 with a peak of 2.47 Bt. This study not only provides a theoretical tool for energy and emissions analysis but also formulates targeted technology roadmaps for building sector emission mitigation.
期刊介绍:
Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including:
1. Smart cities and resilient environments;
2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management;
3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management);
4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities;
5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments;
6. Green infrastructure and BMPs;
7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management;
8. Urban agriculture and forestry;
9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure;
10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy;
11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities;
12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities;
13. Health monitoring and improvement;
14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies;
15. Smart city governance;
16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society;
17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies;
18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems.
19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management;
20. Waste reduction and recycling;
21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling;
22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;