Spatial and demographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the United States, 2020-2023: a multi-model approach.

Abstract

In this study, we assessed the overall impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States between 2020 and 2023 through estimates of excess all-cause mortality. Monthly mortality rates over a 19-year period, stratified by age, sex and state of residence were used to forecast expected mortality for the pandemic years. A combination of models - two timeseries, a spatial random effects and a generalized additive -- was used to better capture uncertainty. Results indicate that US national excess mortality decreased in 2023 to 157 thousand (95% prediction interval: 35K-282K) from 502K (436K-567K), 574K(484K-666K) and 377K (264K-484K) during the years 2020-2022, respectively. Unlike in previous years, deaths with Covid-19 as the underlying-cause-of-death possibly accounted for all excess deaths during 2023. While for the older age groups (75+ years) the year 2020, before vaccines were available, had the highest excess mortality rate, the two younger age groups had the highest excess mortality in 2021. In each age group, women were estimated to have consistently lower excess mortality than men. West Virginia had the highest age-standardized excess mortality among all states in 2021 and 2022. Our findings demonstrate the value of a multi-model approach in capturing heterogeneity in excess mortality.