Long-term trends in the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China: A comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030 based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

IF 4.9 1区 医学 Q1 ONCOLOGY Radiotherapy and Oncology Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.radonc.2024.110613
Bijuan Chen, Zhouwei Zhan, Yun Xu, Sisi Yu, Jiali Huang, Yunxiang Fang, Yifei Liu, Ruyu Lin, Jianji Pan, Shaojun Lin, Qiaojuan Guo, Jinsheng Hong
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Abstract

Background and purpose: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a significant public health issue in China, with distinctive epidemiological characteristics and evolving trends. This study aims to analyze long-term trends in NPC burden from 1990 to 2021 and provide projections.

Materials and methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (1990-2021) was utilized to evaluate NPC metrics, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression identified significant changes over time. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort. A decomposition analysis identified factors influencing changes in NPC incidence, prevalence, and DALYs. Projections were made for future trends up to 2030.

Results: In 2021, NPC significantly impacted China, with males experiencing higher incidence (5.16 per 100,000) and mortality rates (2.32 per 100,000) than females. NPC prevalence was 342,477 cases, with males accounting for 260,164. DALYs totaled 982,657, predominantly affecting males. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China decreased from 4.64 to 3.42 per 100,000, while globally it declined from 1.74 to 1.38 per 100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, trends showed an initial decline in ASIR and ASPR, followed by a steady increase from 2006 onwards, with males experiencing more significant rises. Mortality rates showed a general downward trend, yet males remained disproportionately affected. Comparative global data indicated that while NPC metrics are declining worldwide, the burden remains higher in China. Decomposition analysis highlighted aging and population growth as major contributors to the NPC burden. BAPC projections indicated a continuing rise in age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for both males and females up to 2030.

Conclusions: The burden of NPC in China remains significant, particularly among the male population. Despite declining mortality rates, the increasing prevalence suggests that more people are living with NPC. Targeted public health interventions are urgently needed to address these gender-specific trends and reduce the disease burden.

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中国鼻咽癌负担的长期趋势:基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的1990-2021年综合分析及2030年预测。
背景和目的:鼻咽癌(NPC)是中国一个重要的公共卫生问题,具有独特的流行病学特征和演变趋势。本研究旨在分析1990年至2021年鼻咽癌负担的长期趋势,并提供预测:研究利用全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库(1990-2021 年)的数据来评估鼻咽癌的指标,包括发病率、流行率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年(DALYs)。连接点回归确定了随时间发生的重大变化。年龄-时期-队列(APC)分析评估了年龄、时期和队列的影响。分解分析确定了影响鼻咽癌发病率、流行率和残疾调整寿命年数变化的因素。对直至2030年的未来趋势进行了预测:2021 年,鼻咽癌对中国产生了重大影响,男性发病率(每 10 万人 5.16 例)和死亡率(每 10 万人 2.32 例)均高于女性。鼻咽癌发病率为 342,477 例,其中男性为 260,164 例。残疾调整寿命年数共计 982 657 年,主要影响男性。从 1990 年到 2021 年,中国的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)从每 10 万人 4.64 例降至 3.42 例,而全球发病率则从每 10 万人 1.74 例降至 1.38 例。从 1990 年到 2021 年,ASIR 和 ASPR 均呈下降趋势,从 2006 年开始稳步上升,其中男性上升幅度更大。死亡率呈总体下降趋势,但男性受影响的比例仍然过高。全球数据比较表明,虽然全球鼻咽癌指标都在下降,但中国的负担仍然较重。分解分析强调,老龄化和人口增长是造成鼻咽癌负担的主要因素。BAPC预测显示,到2030年,男性和女性的年龄标准化发病率和患病率都将持续上升:结论:中国的鼻咽癌负担仍然很重,尤其是在男性人群中。尽管死亡率有所下降,但患病率的上升表明有更多的人患有鼻咽癌。亟需采取有针对性的公共卫生干预措施,以应对这些特定性别的趋势并减轻疾病负担。
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来源期刊
Radiotherapy and Oncology
Radiotherapy and Oncology 医学-核医学
CiteScore
10.30
自引率
10.50%
发文量
2445
审稿时长
45 days
期刊介绍: Radiotherapy and Oncology publishes papers describing original research as well as review articles. It covers areas of interest relating to radiation oncology. This includes: clinical radiotherapy, combined modality treatment, translational studies, epidemiological outcomes, imaging, dosimetry, and radiation therapy planning, experimental work in radiobiology, chemobiology, hyperthermia and tumour biology, as well as data science in radiation oncology and physics aspects relevant to oncology.Papers on more general aspects of interest to the radiation oncologist including chemotherapy, surgery and immunology are also published.
期刊最新文献
A feasibility study of dose-band prediction in radiation therapy: Predicting a spectrum of plan dose. Auto-contouring of cardiac substructures for Stereotactic arrhythmia radioablation (STAR): A STOPSTORM.eu consortium study. Automated segmentation in planning-CT for breast cancer radiotherapy: A review of recent advances. Boron neutron capture therapy for cutaneous angiosarcoma and malignant melanoma: First in-human phase I clinical trial. Long-term trends in the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China: A comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030 based on the global burden of disease study 2021.
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