A reliability-constrained planning model for antarctic electricity and heat integrated energy system

Abstract

In order to maintain the supply adequacy of energy for the Antarctic integrated energy system, which in turn supports normal scientific research activities and the life safety of researchers, it is imperative that the reliability criterion be applied in planning issues. In this paper, a reliability-constrained planning model for the Antarctic electricity-heat integrated energy system is proposed, thus the optimal allocation of the wind turbines, photovoltaic, diesel engine, battery storage system, and Hydrogen storage system are obtained. Firstly, the reliability-oriented planning model applicable to the Antarctic integrated energy system is constructed. In particular, the improved Gaussian mixture model is introduced to accurately describe the probabilistic characteristics of renewable energy in Antarctica considering its unique geographical location and operating environment. Then, a rolling horizon based Sequential Monte Carlo method is developed to address the problem of intractable reliability constraints in the planning formulation. More specifically, the explicit reliability function is exacted by approximation function, which can be easily added to the planning model. Finally, the online-offline numerical approach is proposed to speed up the online computation. The validity and feasibility of the proposed method is verified on the actual Antarctic energy system. The results indicate that the optimal allocation results calculated by proposed method can guarantee the reliable supply of the Antarctic energy system.